True, but this post is too long and complicated. The point here is that complex adaptive systems’ behavior can’t be predicted by simple cause-and-effect rules or statistical samples of their past behaviors.
For example, think about a periodically warmed bath-tube of icy water. You measure its temperature with a sample of thermometers. Trend line of the average temperature tells very little of the future. A model creates better predictions but modeling the earth in the Solar system is way too complex to get anything useful out.